Population trends across Greater New Orleans have been discouraging these past few years. According to the Census Bureau, from 2020 to 2023 six out of the seven parishes in the New Orleans Metropolitan Statistical Area shed residents. Jefferson and Orleans have been especially hard hit, with Jefferson Parish losing an estimated 19,004 residents since 2020 and Orleans Parish losing slightly more (down 19,861 residents since 2020).
Despite the disappointing top-line population statistics for 2020-2023, an encouraging analysis of longer-term demographic trends in Orleans Parish and Greater New Orleans was published in early July by The Data Center. The report’s findings, which went almost unnoticed, document some rather amazing phenomena. The data illustrate dramatic improvement over time in terms of educational attainment and poverty levels, from 2000 to 2023 (or from 1979/1980 to 2023, in some instances). The positive takeaways include:
Education Levels
Nowadays, Orleans Parish has a far greater percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher than the U.S. as a whole. Fully 44% of its population is so educated, versus only 36% of the U.S. Prior to Hurricane Katrina, the New Orleans figure was just 2 percentage points greater than the nation. Additionally, the overall figure for the metro area (35%) is today essentially on par with the rest of the U.S.
The report also documents a stunning decline in the prevalence of under-education. On the eve of Katrina, a staggering one in four residents of Orleans Parish possessed less than a high school diploma. A massive improvement has transpired in the past 20 years, with only one in 10 residents of Orleans Parish today possessing less than a high school diploma. Notably, this Orleans Parish statistic now tracks the national rate in 2023, which is also 10%.
Most importantly, levels of educational attainment have skyrocketed among the city’s Black population. In 1980, fewer than one in 12 African American residents of Orleans Parish possessed a bachelor’s degree or higher. Forty-three years later, in 2023, more than one in four do, a rate greater than that of the Black population nationwide.
Levels of Poverty
The poverty rate within Orleans Parish dropped by a full 6 percentage points between 2000 and 2023, from 28% to 22%. This makes New Orleans nowadays less poor than cities like Detroit (33% poverty rate), Cleveland (30% poverty rate), Cincinnati (29%), Birmingham (26%), and Philadelphia (23%) and only 1 to 2 percentage points higher than Houston, Memphis, Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Knoxville, Tennessee. The metro poverty rate is also closing in on the nation as a whole, with only a 3 percentage-point difference in 2023 (16% below the poverty line here versus 13% for the nation as a whole).
Within Orleans Parish, Black, white and Hispanic people all enjoy appreciably lower poverty rates than was true in 1979, with the biggest decrease occurring among Black households. Furthermore, the enormous decline in Orleans Parish poverty rates has not been accompanied by a meaningful increase in poverty rates within surrounding suburban parishes. That is, New Orleans’ lower poverty rate has not come about simply because more poor people in Greater New Orleans live in suburban parishes than was true pre-Katrina.
In the text accompanying its report, The Data Center chose to focus on the disparities that persist among different racial and ethnic groups within the city and region, rather than highlight the positive developments I profile here. However, disparity among different racial and ethnic groups is a national phenomenon, present everywhere. Only the degree varies. I would argue, therefore, that the real story the report tells is our local success at accomplishing what is, in truth, the far harder work of leveling up the fundamentals.
The foundation for generating and sustaining economic growth in our region is now far stronger than ever before. We are no longer profoundly under-educated and cripplingly poor. Our top priority today — what we must demand of our political leaders, business owners and other key decision makers — must be a laser-focus on regional economic growth, and on the policies and reforms that will enable this. Only by growing the overall size of the pie can we succeed at narrowing the gap in incomes and net wealth across race and ethnicity in our city and region and reverse Greater New Orleans’ recent population decline.
Frank Rabalais is a director and historic preservation specialist at Crescent Growth Capital.
