Louisiana Tax Revenues Continue to Exceed Estimates

BATON ROUGE (The Center Square) — Louisiana Department of Revenue tax collections are on pace to exceed updated projections adopted by the Revenue Estimating Conference last month.

On May 18, the REC adopted an official forecast of $12.068 billion in tax and fee revenues for fiscal year 2023 that ends on June 30. That figure is more than $700 million higher than the official forecast set in December.

The Revenue Department’s net receipts report for May shows collections eclipsed $1.2 billion last month, outpacing May 2022 by about $42 million. Year-to-date collections are now at nearly $11.3 billion through May, a 6% increase over 2022 that equates to $634 million more, with one month left in fiscal year 2023.

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A monthly breakdown of revenue collections shows they exceeded 2022 figures every month of fiscal year 2023 but November and December, and if the pattern continues revenues for June will top the roughly $1.1 billion collected in the same month last year.

Assuming revenues match June 2022, Louisiana will close fiscal year 2023 with tax and fee revenues more than $300 million higher than the REC forecast.

Louisiana’s tax revenues are driven largely by sales tax, individual income and corporation and franchise taxes.

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Last month’s revenue report shows net sales tax collections are up about 5% compared to May 2022, when collections stood 21% above 2021. General sales tax cash receipts have outpaced last year in all months except January, April, and May. Year-to-date collections through last month are $190 million ahead of the same time last year, for a total of about $4.1 billion heading into June.

While individual income tax revenues exceeded 2022 levels in six out of the first 11 months of fiscal year 2023, overall year-to-date collections are up just 1%, or about $31 million, to roughly $4.1 billion.

With corporation and franchise taxes, net receipts through May are up 7% from last year, totaling about $1.2 billion year to date. The increase equates to about $82 million more collected so far in 2023 compared to the same time last year.

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Severance tax collections were also up 92% through May compared to 2022, translating to $379 million more than last year, while gas and special fuels taxes have declined 4% year to date, a decrease of $24 million, and miscellaneous taxes are down 29% or roughly $98 million from 2022 levels.

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