Lawmakers, Public Face Steep Learning Curve for Gov. Landry’s Tax Overhaul: Analysis

BATON ROUGE, La. (Oct. 4, 2024, Louisiana Illuminator) — If the devil is in the details of Republican Gov. Jeff Landry’s sweeping tax overhaul, then Louisiana lawmakers have a hell of a lot of homework before a special session Landry wants to convene next month.

Legislators received copies of bills Wednesday totaling hundreds of pages that comprise the governor’s plan for the most significant reworking of state taxes in 50 years. But even after they’ve read every ream, there will be questions because there hasn’t been enough time yet for number crunchers at the Capitol to tally up the impact of Landry’s proposals to produce what’s called the fiscal note for each bill.

There’s also the matter of educating the public on whatever lawmakers approve. It might be the most critical aspect of the governor’s tax package because voters will have to approve any changes to taxes covered in the Louisiana Constitution.

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This all has to happen fairly soon, according to the governor. His urgency is tied to a major state tax revenue dropoff next year, estimated at between $400 million to $700 million depending on the scenarios in play. That would mean major cuts to health care for the poor, elderly and disabled as well as significant budget reductions for state colleges and universities.

“We have a crisis if we do not address it,” Landry told reporters at a news conference Tuesday.

So what’s up for consideration? What relief, if any, can individual and business taxpayers expect? And what will be the impact to the state’s fiscal health?

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Let’s cover what we know now based on the broad-stroke information available, with more clarity to come as legislators and tax experts digest the bills in question.

 

 

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A flat tax foundation

Landry wants to follow the burgeoning trend of states that have moved from a graduated income tax, where rates increase based on one’s income, to a flat tax — with everyone paying the same percentage regardless of their income. Eleven of the 41 states that collect income taxes have use a flat rate, and two more have approved making the transition. In 2022 alone, five states decided to switch to a flat rate system.

The governor has signaled that a flat tax would serve as a stepping stone to Department of Revenue Secretary Richard Nelson’s ultimate goal of fully eliminating state income taxes.

Louisiana Revenue Secretary Richard Nelson. (Greg LaRose | Louisiana Illuminator)

Louisiana currently has three personal income tax brackets that max out with a 4.25% rate. The governor will propose replacing them all with a flat 3% rate.

The flat tax would be paired with a much higher $12,500 standard deduction for individual filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly.

The proposal is similar to but more ambitious than previous ones that failed to gain traction in the Legislature. Landry’s boasts lower rates and would extend to businesses with a 3.5% flat tax on their income — a sizable adjustment from its current brackets that max out with a 7.5% rate.

Flat tax proponents praise its simplicity and transparency, while critics say it’s not fair for lower income households to be taxed at the same rate as the wealthy.

Jan Moller, executive director of Invest in Louisiana, is among those who oppose the flat tax idea. He cited research that shows Louisiana as having the 10th most regressive tax regime in the nation. When looking across the income spectrum, the poorest people in the state pay 13% of their income toward state and local taxes, he said. For Louisiana’s richest 1%, their state and local tax burden is 6.5%.

Plus, moving to a flat income tax would further undermine Louisiana’s ability to provide essential government services, Moller said.

“Frankly, the system we have now doesn’t raise enough revenue to meet those basic needs,” he told members of the Louisiana House tax committee Thursday.

The conservative Pelican Institute, which CEO Daniel Erspamer describes as a “free market think tank,” is more bullish on Landry’s flat tax proposal. He also appeared before the tax committee along with other tax policy analysts who weighed in on the basic framework of the governor’s proposal.

Lawmakers should “trust but verify” once the state moves to a flat income tax, making adjustments if revenue levels aren’t adequate to meet the state’s needs, Erspamer said.

The Landry administration is expected to proposed a sales tax be placed on streaming internet services such as Netflix. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Filling the void

Compared with its calls for a flat income tax, the Landry administration has been less outspoken about how such a dramatic fiscal shift would be possible. It wasn’t until a reporter pressed for details Tuesday that Secretary Nelson acknowledged a 0.45% portion of the state sales tax set to expire on June 30 would have to be renewed.

For how long? There’s been no indication, and that uncertainty — combined with many Republican lawmakers who want to see the temporary tax end — could place a huge question mark over Landry’s entire overhaul.

However, the continuance of the 0.45% slice hasn’t apparently dampened support for Landry’s plan from anti-tax groups such as the Pelican Institute and Americans for Prosperity, whose state director Scott Simon urged lawmakers Thursday to embrace the governor’s proposal.

They also haven’t been dissuaded by talk from the administration about expanding the state sales tax to more items. Specifics haven’t been made public yet, but a sales tax could be placed on various services such as auto detailing, pet grooming, massages, streaming internet subscriptions and even lobbying.

Landry also wants to eliminate dozens of tax breaks, though he has not elaborated on those aside from assuring that he wouldn’t cut the popular homestead exemption on property tax or expand sales taxes to include groceries, prescription drugs or household utility bills.

Low-hanging fruit

Chances are good that lawmakers will line up behind Landry’s wish to do away with the state’s corporate franchise tax, which starts at a flat $110 for every company doing business in the state and then ranges from 4% to 8% depending on its net income.

“It’s really a cover charge for doing business in Louisiana,” Erspamer said.

Steven Procopio

Steven Procopio, president of the nonpartisan Public Affairs Research Council of Louisiana, told lawmakers Thursday he also supports ending the franchise tax. He noted that doing so would have no impact on the general fund that pays for state government operations because its revenue goes directly into a state savings account.

Another piece of advice Procopio offered to the committee was fiscally prudent but politically tricky: removing constitutional protections for 22 state funds that are shielded from budget cuts. There hasn’t been adequate consensus behind the idea in the Legislature, which leaves higher education and medical care for the poor, elderly and disabled to bear the brunt of reductions.

What we don’t know

There’s no crystal ball to gauge the appetite among Republicans in the Legislature to extend the 0.45% chunk of sales taxes or a 2% tax on business utilities that also goes away at the end of June.

Lawmakers will also have to decide whether they will stick with income tax reduction “triggers” they approved in 2021 that would reduce collections across all income brackets starting in 2026. If they’re kept in place, it could cost another $100 million to $200 million in state revenue in the next fiscal year.

Any tax code revisions will also have a ripple effect on local governments that depend on state revenue.

The governor has proposed giving local officials the option to provide an exemption to the state’s corporate inventory tax, given that the money helps fund parish governments. But it’s unclear how a local exemption would be structured.

For the most part, the inventory tax doesn’t generate a lot of revenue because businesses already receive full reimbursements from the state for the inventory taxes they pay to parishes. As a result, the current state-level exemption has transformed the inventory tax into a mechanism to make the state cover the expenses of some parish governments.

Regardless of the answers to these questions, Moller stressed to the tax panel Thursday that there is no quick fix for Louisiana fiscal woes.

“I think it took generations to get where we are, and I think it will take generations to rebuild,” he said.

By by Greg LaRose and Wesley Muller, via Louisiana Illuminator.

Julie O’Donoghue contributed to this report.

 

 

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