There is always excitement in the air in New Orleans as the Saints embark on a new season, but the environment is not as electric as it once was.
The Black & Gold won the NFC South four seasons in a row from 2017-2020, posting a 49-15 mark and averaging 12.25 wins and 3.75 losses per season. Of course, there are some major differences between the two eras, namely the departure of head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees, arguably the best people to hold those positions in franchise history.
In the three seasons since, 2021-2023, under head coach Dennis Allen, the Saints are 25-26, averaged 8.3 wins compared to 8.7 losses, and missed the playoffs each year. Looking forward to the 2024 season, it seems like Saints fans will get more of what they’ve been given.
I don’t gamble; however, I’m intrigued by those who do put their money where their mouths are. While the Buccaneers (9-8) won their third straight NFC South title last year, the Saints (9-8) finished second, Falcons (7-10) third, and Panthers (2-15) last. Professional gamblers are expecting a shakeup at the top of the division. According to Caesars Sportsbook, Atlanta is the favorite to win the division with a prediction of 9.5 wins this season. Tampa follows with 8.5, the Saints are expected to win 7.5, and the Panthers see improvement at 5.5 wins this season.
Many expect the 2024 season to be a crossroads for the Saints. For years, New Orleans has flirted with salary cap disaster. Fans have been told that the team was mortgaging its future to win during the Payton years. Now, it seems the team is facing that cold reality.
Even though the Saints have the fifth easiest schedule in the league, according to Sharp Football Analysis, sports books expect to see the team regress — mainly due to aging stars, an average roster, quarterback play, and numerous questions on the offensive line. However, there is hope that QB Derek Carr, who had a good second half of the 2023 season, can continue his positive momentum with the addition of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
While running back Alvin Kamara has been able to elude NFL defenders, can he escape the grasp of Father Time? That same question could be asked of several players on offense and defense, including linebacker Demario Davis, defensive end Cam Jordan, safety Tyrann Mathieu, and Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill. The team has solid wide receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but neither are considered top players at their positions.
The biggest question marks for this team are on the offensive line. Always a team strength under Payton, the formidable front line appears to be less like a brick wall and more like a picket fence. If the O Line doesn’t come together as a cohesive unit, it will be a long season for the Saints and their fans.
Under Allen, a defensive-minded coach, it’s not surprising that the defense has been the most solid unit of the team. The Saints’ D has been among the Top 10 in the NFL and has kept the team competitive in recent years. Expect that trend to continue. If — and this is a big if — defensive end Chase Young, the second overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft who the team signed to a one-year, $13 million deal, proves to be healthy and makes an impact, he could be an amazing addition to the defensive line. The unit’s secondary is a strength, bolstered by the addition of second-round pick Kool-Aid McKinstry, an All-American from Alabama.
The hardest part of covering a beloved sports team is being objective and resisting becoming a “homer” who only promotes positivity. The truth is, I think 2024 will be a transitional year for the Saints. There is hope that the team can break out of the mediocrity it has shown under Allen. If it does, great. Laissez les bons temps rouler! If it doesn’t, the time may be right for several significant changes to the team’s coaching staff, roster, and, most importantly, its salary cap situation.
As it is now, I see the Saints as a .500 team. With a 17-game schedule, that likely means a 9-8 or 8-9 season. Good enough to run with the pack, but not enough to lead it. In New Orleans, however, with the Saints, there is always hope. No one foresaw the team’s successes in 2006 or 2009. This may be one of those seasons. However, if past is prologue, Saints fans are more than likely going to have to lean on their faith as their team endures the 2024 season.
Chris Price is an award-winning journalist and public relations principal. When he’s not writing, he’s avid about music, the outdoors, and Saints, Ole Miss and Chelsea football.
